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Dillon to top the poll in Mayo in a closely contested constituency

Sinn Féin are holding their own, and Fianna Fáil battling for a second seat

21.11.24

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The results of a TG4/Ipsos B&A Mayo constituency poll revealed on Nuacht TG4 this evening show current TD and former county footballer Alan Dillon out in front on 17 per cent, reaching the quota and guaranteeing him a seat. He takes outgoing Michael Ring’s place as Fine Gael biggest vote getter in Mayo.

Following a review of constituencies by the Electoral Commission last year, the constituency boundary has been revised to include all of Mayo, returning to a five-seater with a quota of 17%.
 
The results of the constituency poll are:

*= 0.0 – 0.5%
 

In 2020 Fine Gael took two of the four seats – Michael Ring topped the poll and Alan Dillon edged Michelle Mulherin out for the second Fine Gael seat. The remaining two seats went to Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh and Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary.

A second seat for Fine Gael is very likely again this time round, with the other three Fine Gael candidates performing well; Mark Duffy on 10 per cent, Keira Keogh on 8 per cent and Martina Jennings on 4 per cent. The combined Fine Gael vote in this poll lines up with the party’s vote share in 2020 when they won two seats in what was then a four-seat constituency. However questions remain about the party’s strategy of running four candidates.

Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh is well positioned to hold her seat with 13 percent of the vote. Sinn Féin’s total vote in Mayo is 18 per cent (when you add in Gerry Murray’s 5 per cent), which is in line with their national polling figures, but below the 23 per cent the party achieved in 2020.

Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary is on 11 per cent and Lisa Chambers on 10 per cent. Combined, the Fianna Fáil vote is above a quota and they will be challenging for a second seat.

Independent candidate, Patsy O’Brien is in contention for the final seat, on 7 per cent. Also on 7 per Aontú’s Paul Lawless has performed above the party’s national showing at 7 percent, and is also in contention for the final seat.

This TG4/Ipsos B&A poll was conducted over the phone on Monday and Tuesday of this week (18th and 19thNovember).